09.12.2025 12:16
شارك معهد الإحصاء التركي (TÜİK) الأرقام المتعلقة بمعدل الخصوبة، محذراً الرئيس أردوغان من أن "نحن نعيش الكارثة حالياً". وفقاً لذلك، كان معدل الخصوبة الإجمالي في تركيا 2.38 طفلًا في عام 2001، ومنذ عام 2014 بدأ في الانخفاض المستمر. قال نائب رئيس TÜİK، فوركان متين: "إذا استمر الانخفاض في الخصوبة بهذه الطريقة، فقد يتجاوز متوسط أعمارنا 45 عامًا خلال حوالي 40 عامًا".
ت slowing of Turkey's population growth rate in recent years raises concerns that it may lead to profound and permanent changes in the country's demographic structure.
Experts argue that the decline in fertility rates will not only slow population growth in the long term but also lead to many issues such as a decrease in the workforce, increased burden on the social security system, and rising health and care expenses.
أردوغان قال "نحن نعيش كارثة"
President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, in a statement at the Family and Culture-Art Symposium he attended, drew attention to the fertility rate, saying that the population growth rate has decreased, and stated, "The total fertility rate measured last year was 1.48. We are currently experiencing a disaster."
معدل الخصوبة انخفض بشكل مستمر منذ عام 2014
According to a study conducted by TÜİK, the "total fertility rate" was 2.38 children in 2001, and it has been on a continuous decline since 2014. Accordingly, the figure, which was 2.19 in 2014, dropped to 2.16 in 2015, 2.11 in 2016, 2.8 in 2017, and down to 2 in 2018.
Since 2018, the total fertility rate has remained below 2. In 2019, the fertility rate was 1.89, followed by 1.77 in 2020, 1.71 in 2021, 1.63 in 2022, 1.51 in 2023, and finally dropped to 1.48 in 2024. This situation indicates that the population renewal level of 2.1 has not been reached.
Experts warn that if this trend continues, Turkey may fall below the EU average.
Evaluating this transformation Turkey is experiencing, TÜİK Vice President Furkan Metin stated that the fertility rate has dropped to 1.4, reaching a "high alert" level.
Metin emphasized that Turkey has been included in the "very old countries" category as of last year, noting that the elderly population rate could exceed 25% in the next 25 years.
"تركيا كانت مثل شاب في العشرينات من عمره في التسعينيات"
Pointing out that the average age has rapidly increased in parallel with this decline, Metin stated, "Turkey was like a 20-year-old young person in the 1990s. If the decline in fertility continues in this way, our median age could exceed 45 in about 40 years. The energy of a 45-year-old Turkey will not be the same as that of Turkey in its 20s and 25s in the 1990s."
Stating that a very serious population crisis is currently being experienced, Metin warned that if the declines in fertility rates continue for another 10 years, it will lead to an irreversible path.
Metin mentioned that the increase in the elderly population rate could also bring socio-economic problems, stating that the social security system cannot continue in its current state.
"تركيا في المرتبة الأولى في معدلات الولادة القيصرية"
Metin stated, "Turkey ranks first in the world in cesarean birth rates. People are marrying later and, since they are having children through cesarean sections, they find it difficult to have more than 2 or 3 children, even if they desire to."
Metin noted that those who have only one child or remain unmarried will face loneliness in the future, stating:
"We will start to see the problems related to aging that many countries in Europe are experiencing in Turkey. Currently, in every 5 households we knock on, 1 has someone living alone. Among those living alone, 35% are women over 55. Therefore, the importance of family becomes apparent in later ages. However, the regret of having children at older ages does not help. Unfortunately, as a country, we are currently missing this threshold."
"تركيا أصبحت دولة تتقدم في العمر بشكل متزايد"
"تركيا أصبحت دولة تتقدم في العمر بشكل متزايد"
Prof. Dr. Cemalettin Şahin, Dean of the Naval Academy of the National Defense University (MSÜ), stated that the population crisis in the country is not new and has been ongoing for the last 20 years.
Recalling that after the declaration of the Republic, state policies aimed to increase the population, Şahin said, "Atatürk had a dream of a Turkey with 100 million people. These are present in memoirs. With a provision of the Hygiene Law enacted in 1930, mothers with 6 or more children were awarded medals and provided with financial assistance. Additionally, arbitrary abortions were banned. Therefore, some success was achieved."
Şahin emphasized that campaigns were initiated through newspapers to reduce the population towards the end of the 1950s, stating, "Foundations and associations from outside also intervened in this campaign. There were efforts to plan Turkey's population. A report was prepared for the Ministry of Health in 1963, and 2 years later, the Population Planning Law was enacted. All means were used to reduce Turkey's population."
"نحتاج إلى تعبئة شاملة"
Şahin stated that new regulations are needed in population planning, saying, "Housing architecture should be re-evaluated. 1+1 and 2+1 apartments are practically prisons for children. Our housing culture needs to change." Şahin added, "The duration of education needs to be shortened. We need to revisit education."
Expressing that there is a prejudice among the public that the population is not increasing due to economic concerns, Şahin said, "This is not true. When we say this, they react. If that were the case, the populations of Sweden, Norway, England, and Germany would be increasing. Currently, the populations of wealthy countries are not increasing. This is a cultural issue. We are not saying let’s multiply endlessly. Right now, Turkey is becoming an increasingly aging country. Today, Turkey is unfortunately deprived of the human power to harvest its own hazelnuts, cotton, and tea. Therefore, the future does not look very bright; a comprehensive mobilization is needed."